When Andy Burnham became prime minister, he inherited a party led by one of the least popular prime ministers in modern polling history, with only 13% of voters satisfied with Keir Starmer. In the week before Starmer announced his resignation, Labour was averaging 19% in the polls, level with the Conservatives and eight points behind Reform.
It took just one week for that to change. Within days of Burnham entering Downing Street, three polls showed Labour level with or ahead of Reform. At the time of writing, Reform’s polling average has since fallen from 27% to 22%, while Ipsos puts Labour on 32%, the Tories on 24% and Reform on 20%.
The signs were there earlier. When I was canvassing in Makerfield in early June, I kept hearing the same thing: “He speaks to us like we’re human beings. Starmer doesn’t do that.” That quality has since been credited with what’s become known as the “Burnham Bounce”.
It would be easy to attribute Labour’s newfound popularity to Burnham’s personality. His team certainly see his ability to connect with people as their biggest asset. But personality only gets you so far. What interests me most is the story he tells.
I’ve spent the past few weeks analysing how Burnham communicates. What stands out is a story built on hope rather than blame, and on what he’s for rather than what he’s against.
For those of us working in charity and trade union communications, there’s plenty to learn from.
A different story
Using Agenda’s Narrative Intelligence tool, I analysed a set of speeches by both Starmer and Burnham to understand the difference in their positioning:
Starmer’s speeches often told the story of a country damaged by its predecessor: “14 years of rot”, a black hole in the public finances and foundations that needed fixing. Unpleasant, high-arousal emotions such as anger, fear and disgust outweighed pleasant ones, 59% to 40%. The most common emotion was indignation.
Burnham’s speeches flip that balance: 65% of the emotion is pleasant and 34% unpleasant, with hope the most common emotion. The inherited-damage frame falls to just 8%. In its place are three ideas: power to places, "growth in every postcode” and public control of essentials.
| Starmer | Burnham | |
|---|---|---|
| CORE STORY | Inherited damage, foundations to fix | Power to places, growth in every postcode, public control |
| PLEASANT v UNPLEASANT EMOTIONS | 40% pleasant vs 59% unpleasant | 65% pleasant vs 34% unpleasant |
| MOST COMMON EMOTION | Indignation | Hope |
| BLAME | Aimed at predecessor | Shared, “myself included” |
| OPPONENTS’ FRAMES | Repeated | Reclaimed |
There was a logic to Starmer’s approach. He inherited real problems, and progressive communications often lead with everything wrong in the world. Such positioning demonstrates an understanding of people's pain, conveys urgency and makes the case for change.
But it can also reinforce your opponent’s frame, making you sound negative rather than hopeful. People already know things are bad. What they’re missing is a reason to believe things could be different, and a part to play in making that happen. Messages focused too heavily on problems can leave people feeling powerless, and research has shown that powerless people tend to switch off rather than sign up, vote or act.
Burnham blames less and, when he does, includes himself. When talking about failures in the care system, he takes responsibility: “What an indictment of my generation of politicians, myself included. Too cowardly to fix something as basic as the care we give to each other.”
He also reclaims opponents’ frames rather than repeating them. On the familiar Brexiteer soundbite, Take Back Control, he argues that those who promised control “are the ones that gave it away”.
Audience matters
Like any good communicator, Burnham tailors his activities to his audience.
He reaches people who don't follow politics closely through entertainment television and creator collaborations. For example, he appeared on Gogglebox alongside Steve Rotheram, Mayor of Liverpool, to promote Stand Up to Cancer, and teamed up with bus-loving content creator Bemi Orojuogun, known online as “Bus Aunty”, to announce the £2 fare cap.
For younger, mobile-first audiences, he uses TikTok and Instagram, posting vertical video designed for phones. He also embraces content that supporters create, such as the clip of him being sworn in set to the Z-Cars theme tune.
The 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues was announced in a pub, through a ranking of bar snacks with the Chancellor that attracted more than five million views on X. Rather than relying on a press release, Burnham reached hospitality customers and staff in their own environment.
He also uses humour. When Kemi Badenoch mocked his eye lashes and black T-shirt, he responded with a five-second video of himself blinking and saying, “It’s dark blue, actually.” It received more than 4.2 million views in under a day.
This works because the audience is already experiencing the setting for themselves. They don't need to imagine how a policy might affect their lives: the announcement is being made in the very place it relates to.
But Burnham isn't infallible. On immigration, he does the opposite. He has stood by his Home Secretary’s reforms, including extending the time to settle in the UK to 15 years for some migrants, and said net migration needs to fall further.
This accepts Reform’s frame: migrants as a burden British citizens shouldn't have to bear. Repeating an opponent’s frame strengthens it, is unlikely to win back Reform voters and risks losing the centre and the left. For a prime minister whose brand is hope, this is the language of division.
A transatlantic lesson
Across the Atlantic, similar approaches are also gaining ground. From Zohran Mamdani’s 2025 mayoral campaign to the recent mid-terms, hopeful, culturally fluent communications appear central to the Democrats’ strategy.
During Mamdani’s campaign for example, his team ignored polls suggesting crime was voters’ top concern and built the campaign around one message: affordability. Everything came back to it, from rent freezes to the message that “the working class keep this city running”.
They spoke to different audiences, including Trump supporters, using seven different languages and stories without changing who Mamdani was. They also broke out of the political bubble, using reality-TV-style advertising and targeting entertainment journalists. He went from polling at zero to winning the election.
The mid-terms suggest this wasn't a one-off.
In Texas, James Talarico, a Christian seminarian, won the state's first Democratic Senate seat since 1988 on what he called “a politics of love”. His campaign focused on the people versus the ultrawealthy, rather than traditional political divides of left versus right.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed ran on a similar message: “Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All.” He kept the focus on affordability, and the need to build a government that works for everyone not just billionaires. He also refused to dilute who he is. The first Muslim elected to the US Senate, he called out Islamophobic rhetoric rather than trying to manage it.
None of this means communications won the elections alone. Analysts also point to dissatisfaction with the Iran war, rising gas prices, the wider affordability crisis and Trump's approval rating of just 38%. But the pattern is hard to ignore. In two countries, hopeful, focused communication has connected with voters who had stopped listening to politicians.
It also leaves the same question hanging over both. As Senator Elizabeth Warren put it after the result: “Now, Democrats must deliver.” The same goes for Burnham.
You can't communicate your way out of bad policy
People judge politics by their lived experience, not messaging. On the doorstep in Makerfield, people told me they could see a “visible difference” in Manchester. Burnham now has to deliver that across the rest of the country.
There are early signs of how difficult that will be. After last month's Budget, a More in Common poll found that just 27% of voters believed Burnham and the Chancellor were cutting the cost of living, while 51% disagreed. Six in 10 thought the Budget "tinkered" with small things around the edges.
More in Common’s UK director, Luke Tryl, summed it up: Starmer didn't seem to understand the pressures voters face; Burnham has convinced them he's at least trying, but that might not be enough. People want visible, near-term improvements as well as a long-term plan.
The story itself can also create risks. Take the £2 bus fare cap. It's a simple, popular and well-staged announcement. But the Chancellor said it was “funded by savings made elsewhere”. Those savings came from international climate finance, part of the UK aid budget. Bond accused the government of “robbing Peter to pay Paul”, while Oxfam welcomed the fare cap but called its funding unjust.
The lesson is that “savings made elsewhere” are still someone's loss. A hopeful story for one audience can land as a cost for another. Ignore that, and the credibility gap opens.
There's a useful comparison with Mamdani. He calls his approach “pothole politics”, and his first 100 days demonstrated how it works. His administration filled 100,000 potholes, more than in the first 100 days of any year in over a decade. At the same time, he acknowledged that his promise of free buses wouldn't happen this year because of resistance in Albany. At 100 days, 43% of New Yorkers approved of his performance and 27% disapproved.
The lesson: deliver small, visible things quickly, be honest when bigger promises take longer, and keep the story going.
That's what Burnham needs to do next. The story brought people in. Delivery, and honesty about what hasn't been delivered, will keep them.
What can charity and union communicators learn from these political campaigns?
Here are seven practical lessons:
1. Lead with what you're for, not what you're against.
Campaigns often open with the problem or the villain. That can grab attention but also stigmatise communities and leave people feeling powerless.
In practice: Rewrite your next campaign headline to name the future you want, not just the thing you oppose.
2. Pick one message and repeat it until you're bored of it.
Almost everything Burnham announces points back to the cost of living. Mamdani ran on affordability. Adapt your messaging for different audiences, but keep the core narrative consistent.
In practice: Agree one central narrative and make every campaign, post and press release a version of it. If supporters wouldn't naturally repeat your wording, rewrite it.
3. Sell the outcome, not the mechanism.
Burnham talks about £2 bus fares, not fare-cap legislation. People buy results, not the machinery behind them.
In practice: Turn each policy ask into a sentence about what changes in someone's life: a better job, a warmer home, healthier food, etc
4. Put your message where your audience is.
Burnham announced the pubs rates cut in a pub and the bus fare cap on a bus. The announcement was already happening in the audience's world.
In practice: Find where your audience already spends time, whether that's a workplace, waiting room or WhatsApp group. Launch there, not just on your own channels.
5. Don't repeat your opponent's frame.
Even rebutting a claim can strengthen it and so should be avoided. Burnham reclaims frames instead, arguing that those who promised control gave it away. Talarico's “Texas is not for sale” identified who was spending against him without repeating their attack.
In practice: Check your next rebuttal for your opponent's language and replace it with yours. Name vested interests and decision-makers, not “government” in general, particularly if you're asking government to act.
6. Let leaders sound like people.
People respond when leaders talk like human beings. Authenticity isn't a technique; it's consistency between who leaders are and what they say.
In practice: Strip institutional language from your leader’s statements and from your social media posts. Make sure the organisation's actions match its words, or the gap will show.
7. Show momentum.
A video summarising Burnham's first week's achievements received five million views on TikTok. People like backing something that looks like it's working. Civil society too often presents itself as the underdog or victim, making it less attractive to join.
In practice: Share wins, however small. Show people joining, whether as members, supporters or volunteers. People want to be on the winning team so show them how you’re winning.
You can't change the story until you understand it. Agenda's Narrative Intelligence tool helps you see what's resonating, what's holding people back and where the opportunity for change lies. Get in touch to find out how we can help you understand the narratives shaping your world – and build the ones that move people forward.
