“A Trump win will embolden far right movements elsewhere. We have our work cut out to challenge that.”
These were the words of Becky Slack, Agenda co-director, as she spoke last night [Tuesday 5 November] at an event hosted by The Bulletin about the American election. While the session was billed as a conversation on why the election results were so close, the discussion covered everything from what the election shows about the state of democracy today to the value and trustworthiness of polling and predictions.
In her response to a question about the impact of a Trump win on Europe, Becky suggested confidence will be given to the likes of Orban, Le Pen and other far-right parties and called on everyone to work together to counter that, saying:
“We had the far-right riots in the UK over the summer, a French election where it was touch and go whether Marine Le Pen would win, EU elections where the far-right was predicted to wipe the floor – although thankfully they didn’t do as well as expected. The far-right is at our heels and we cannot ignore them. A Trump win will embolden far-right movements elsewhere. We have our work cut out to challenge that.”
We’ll be exploring more of these issues and what they mean for civil society communicators over coming weeks and months – including at our Changing Hearts and Minds event in June next year.
But for now, here’s Becky’s opening words, which drew on the research she conducted for the gender issues in fundraising project from Rogare – The Fundraising Think Tank.
“Hello everyone, how are you all feeling? My stomach is experiencing the same kind of knots I felt on the eve of the Brexit referendum. Let’s hope the outcome of tonight is more positive than that.
“My name is Becky Slack and I’m co-director of Agenda, which is a strategic communications agency that works with civil society and social justice organisations helping them influence people with power. We have a team here in Europe, in the UK and we also have a presence in Washington DC.
“You may be wondering why a Brit is up here talking to a room full of Americans about the American election?
“I’m here to share a few nuggets of insights from the research that we have done at Agenda looking at the factors that influence political decision-making. And as someone who is still reeling from the Brexit referendum eight years ago, the results of which as you know were also very close, I can also perhaps share some of those experiences, or at the very least offer shared understanding and empathy.
“The question we’ve been given to discuss this evening is ‘why is the election so close?’
“There’s a lot we could cover. We could discuss:
the accuracy of the polls and whether the rumours are true that some pollsters are adding bias in favour of Trump because they are fearful of repercussions if he should win
the role of the media and social media, editorial bias and the impact of disinformation – including Musk and Bezos, two of the richest men on the planet, who own X and the Washington Post and just so happen to be best mates with Trump, and the influence they may or may not have over voters
the fact Kamala has had just three months to campaign compared to Trump’s four years and the misogyny and racism she’s faced along the way
it would also be remiss if we didn’t mention the appeal of populism and fascism in times of economic hardship, be that real or perceived
“But I only have five minutes, so for now I want to focus on one of the big issues of this election and that’s the divide between men and women, which is looking set to be one of the defining features of this election.
“Let me tell you about my friend Helen. She is from the swing state of Michigan, she’s ex-American military, a teacher, and has been a card-carrying Republican for her entire adult life. Until now. For the first time ever, she has voted Democrat, something she described to me last night as one of the proudest political moments in all her 60 years. Isn’t that brilliant?
“If the polls are to be believed, Helen is one of thousands of women who are switching sides to vote Harris Walz. The role of women voters should not be underestimated. An NPR poll has women supporting Harris by a 16-point margin, so the turnout of women will have a significant impact in results.
“The women vote is something that is driven by the focus on abortion rights. Or should we say, the control that Trump wants to have over women’s bodies. As Helen said to me last night: “Trump can keep his filthy paws off me and my daughter.” She said she finds the idea that he has control over what happens to her body abhorrent.
“At this rate, young women in America are going to have fewer rights over their bodies than their grandmothers did - there’s something very wrong about the direction that’s travelling in.
“While I welcome the focus on women’s rights and bodily autonomy, I do worry that the framing of this as a women’s issue rather than a human issue may be something that’s contributing to the large swathes of men who are turning to Trump. The same poll that has women supporting Harris by a 16-point margin also has men supporting Trump by 18 points. This gender gap isn’t entirely new. It’s been growing over the last few years - at the same time as women’s voices have got louder, at the same time as the #metoo movement gathered pace and as women’s leadership initiatives have taken hold in the workplace. My research suggest that this is not just a coincidence.
“Now I need to caveat something here. I am a women’s rights activist. I am a feminist. I have spent many years campaigning for equal rights. But my view is that while we have done a really good job at creating opportunities for women in spaces that were traditionally dominated by men, what we haven't done very well is create opportunities for men in the reverse. We haven’t given men the tools to step into those roles which woman traditionally held. And so many men are feeling insecure, like their financial and social status is under threat. All this has created a vacuum that has been occupied by men like Trump, like Andrew Tate, who are very good at tapping into male insecurities and blaming women – or indeed immigrants, Muslims, transpeople (pick a demographic group) - for everything that is wrong in their lives. And [men like Trump] promise to fix it. They promise to give men their power back. Make America great again – and all those other strong man narratives that we’re so familiar with.
“And that’s fundamentally the power of populism and fascism. Tap into people’s fears, blame others, offer simple (yet impossible) solutions to complex problems.
“Which is exactly what Trump has done – whether it’s the offer to men, or to the Arabs who believe it when he tells them he will create peace in the Middle East, or the Latinos who think he’s not talking about them when he talks about mass deportations.
“Of course, these are not homogeneous groups who all think and behave the same. But I think it would not be incorrect to say that part of the reason why the election results seem so close is because demographic groups are acting in new and unpredictable ways.”
